Every cycle bottom struck ≈524 days before a halving. Every cycle top ≈535 days after. A free, live, TradingView-grade chart that draws the rule, confirms it with indicators, and shows you the mathematics underneath — nothing hidden, nothing to install.
No account. No install. Your settings stay in your browser.
Bitcoin's supply halves roughly every four years. Around each halving, price has traced the same anatomy — measured here on real data, not folklore.
Start with a clean TradingView-style chart. Layer on exactly the evidence you want — every toggle remembers your choice, privately, in your own browser.
Halving lines, BUY/SELL dates with every historical move measured close-to-close, technical confirmations, and the three research tables — over live candles that tick with every Bitstamp trade. The current bar forms in front of you, with a countdown to the weekly close.
One click marks every measured bottom and top with its distance from the halving, shades the fitted windows for the 2028 cycle, and opens the CYCLE MATH panel — anchors, decay law, rhythm constants. All labeled for what they are: hindsight fits, not forecasts.
The classic ±500-day rule ships untouched. Next to it: a research preset fitted to the measured anchors — buy 450 days before, sell 550 after — with its full backtest shown right on the chart, honestly compared against buy & hold.
The whole pipeline is deterministic and inspectable — the same numbers every time, from public data you can check yourself.
Full Bitstamp BTC/USD daily history, extended back to 2010 with Coin Metrics community data. The chart re-syncs itself minutes after every UTC bar close.
BUY = halving − offset · SELL = halving + offset.
Every completed BUY→SELL and SELL→BUY move is measured close-to-close and
listed in the performance table — including the drawdowns.
Only completed weekly bars count — no repainting. BUY: weekly RSI(14) crosses above 35 while the Mayer Multiple ≤ 0.90. SELL: weekly MACD turns bearish while RSI ≥ 45 and Mayer ≥ 1.00, within ±90 days of a calendar date.
Bottoms and tops located per cycle → anchor statistics, the ×0.27 decay law, a log-log power-law corridor (R² 0.96), and projected 2028 windows — every fit shown with its sample size and dispersion.
Bitcoin has completed three full halving cycles with reliable data. Three of anything is a pattern, not a proof. That is why this chart shows you dispersion, sample sizes, and backtests instead of predictions — and why the current cycle already bends some of the old rules. Research evidence, honestly presented. Never financial advice.
Fitted bottom zone: Oct–Nov 2026 · Fitted top zone: Oct 2029 — go see how they're derived.
Open the live chart — free